What this tool is

This is a school-list planning and self-assessment tool, not an admissions prediction. It scores each application factor against recent national data, combines them into a weighted composite, and maps that composite to a competitiveness tier, a set of prioritized next moves, and a school-list framework. It runs entirely in your browser; no data is transmitted unless you submit the email form.

Factor weights

Academic metrics carry ~70% of the composite, consistent with the screening role GPA and MCAT play in the AAMC acceptance-rate grid, where acceptance rates rise steeply with both metrics. The experience weights follow the holistic-scoring approach popularized by community tools like the LizzyM score and the WedgeDawg Applicant Rating System (WARS) on Student Doctor Network, recalibrated to the newest published data.

Calibration anchors

• Newest published AAMC FACTS entering-class data: mean matriculant MCAT 512.1 (vs. ~506 for all applicants), mean total GPA 3.81; science GPA typically runs a few hundredths lower.
• AAMC Table A-23 acceptance-rate grid (aggregated recent cycles, 155,940 applicants / 70,289 acceptees): e.g., 3.80+ GPA with 518+ MCAT ≈ 83% accepted to at least one MD program; 3.80+ with 498-501 ≈ 31%; 3.20-3.39 with 518+ ≈ 61%. The bracket rate shown in your result is read from this grid, lightly rounded.
• Overall, roughly 43-45% of MD applicants are accepted somewhere. The often-quoted "7%" figure is per-school, not per-applicant.
• Hard caps: a cumulative GPA below 3.0 or an MCAT below 498 caps the tier, reflecting common screening thresholds; minimal clinical experience caps the tier regardless of metrics, reflecting how patient exposure is weighted in holistic review.
• "Next moves" projections rerun the same model with one input improved (e.g., MCAT retake modeled at your score +4, clinical hours built to ~300). They are score projections within this model, not admissions predictions.
• DO context (AACOM): mean DO matriculant MCAT ≈ 503, GPA ≈ 3.60.

School bands

Schools are grouped into five selectivity bands by their typical matriculant MCAT medians as publicly reported (MSAR and school class profiles). Band placement is approximate and medians shift year to year, so treat the lists as a starting point and verify every school in the current MSAR. The most selective band is shown as "reach" for every profile, because single-school acceptance rates there are low for all applicants. Public schools with strong in-state preferences are marked, and are filtered from out-of-state applicants' target/likely lists.

What this tool cannot see

• Your essays, letters of recommendation, interview skills, and application timing, which drive much of the variance among similar profiles.
• State of residence specifics, socioeconomic or first-generation context, service to underserved communities, and mission fit, which are all weighted meaningfully in holistic review.
• GPA trajectory (a strong upward trend reads better than the same flat average) and MCAT section balance.

Averages are not minimums. Schools admit below their medians and reject above them every cycle. No calculator (this one included) can predict an individual outcome.

Sources

AAMC FACTS: Applicants and Matriculants Data · AAMC Table A-23 (MCAT/GPA acceptance grid) · AAMC MSAR · AACOM (DO data). This tool is independent. It's not affiliated with or endorsed by the AAMC, AACOM, or any medical school.